Danny's Tech: Where West and East Intersect

Thursday, August 11, 2005

Next Programming Model

/. had pointer to: Sim Simeonov's "i-Technology Viewpoint: The Next Programming Models" which I thought might have something profound to say as AOP or OOP. But not so. More of the same by combining languages like AJAX and SOA or Service Oriented Architecture -- none of which are profound in my opinion. 60's and 70's gave birth to OOP. 90's gave birth to AOP. I doubt if we can expect anything profound for another 5-10 years (or more).

Unlike Simeonov, I've been programming since 1980 and have read many papers and books by visionaries like Ted Nelson and Alan Kay long before internet was widely available (I went to public universities like UCLA just to get my hands on IEEE and ACM papers as well order from Xerox PARC for copies of their reports). OOP made a splash in 1981 when Byte magazine published a whole issue on Smalltalk (I didn't grok it when it came out but it was about a year later when a college friend pointed it out and I got into it myself). I got to know AOP because I was in Silicon Valley and had the chance to attend a public talk at Xerox PARC in 1994 (back when it was called Open Implementation).

If the past is any indicator, since OOP took about 20 years to get "popular" (Smalltalk first real release was out in 1972 while C++ came out in late 80's and didn't gain traction until about early/mid-90's) I expect AOP to take 10 more years before it becomes common enough. And 5 more after that before anything profoundly new comes out, I suppose.....